2010

Following the announcement that Senator Martinez will not seek re-election, attention has already turned to what will be an open U.S. Senate seat in Florida.

It guarantees the election-weary state of Florida a two-year Senate contest, one that will kick off not long after the New Year fireworks and champagne.

Seats on the U.S. Senate are coveted. Unlike House seats, Senate terms are six years, not two. Plenty of time to roll up the sleeves and get something done.  Or at least time to get your name better known for whatever else one might be considering.  And it’s a lot better to be one of just a hundred than one of 435.

But not as good as being one of just one.

And that’s why Jeb Bush will decide not to run for the Senate.

Sure he’s sucked all the oxygen from the room at the moment, frozen what would already be a growing field, as the line of the interested sit and wait on his decision.

And that’s the point after all.  He can make people sit and wait, and so that’s what he’s doing.

Jeb Bush is used to being one of one -- an executive.  In the Senate, he’d have a known name, but that doesn’t move you to the front of the line. The Senate’s a collegial body that’s pretty big on seniority.

And Bush would have none. He’d be the Junior Senator from Florida.

And then there’d be that pesky thing about developing a record. The Senate takes a lot of votes. Developing a record is not always a good thing when you’re still wondering if you can make it to the ultimate one-of-one position – the Presidency.

So don’t expect Bush to throw his hat in the ring.  He’s considering it because it puts him back in the headlines. He’s considering it because it reminds everyone he’s still got influence.

He’s considering it because he can.

And then when he decides not to, he has a platform to say why not.

Expect the race for the open Florida Senate seat to produce two primary free-for-alls, and then a very competitive general election that puts to a test whether Obama’s victory in Florida represents a blue Florida or not.

Posted by Bernie Campbell on Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Permalink: 2010