The Road to Majority

By: Steve Schale

21, 2005

For Democrats, last November's loss should come as no surprise. Our party's strategic decision to write off large chunks of our nation, and our state, left us in a position where we needed a near Perfect Storm to pull off a victory.

The recent losses leave the party with one fundamental question --- are we prepared to reject the failed line of reasoning that somehow we can build a majority while ignoring large pockets of Florida voters? As history proves, the answer must be yes.

If there is one trait that ties together our state's recent successful statewide Democrats, Lawton Chiles, Bob Graham, and Bill Nelson, it is that their candidacies resonated with rural voters. Now, don’t get me wrong, they didn't win their elections in North Florida alone, but unlike Al Gore, John Kerry and Bill McBride, they didn't lose them there either.

Winning among rural voters takes a real commitment, but those candidates who invest the time may be surprised when they find a receptive ear. Governor Chiles was a great example of a Democrat who found success in rural Florida by using a style of populism that transcended traditional partisan labels, and developing an image that allowed him to be successful in places where Democrats today suffer embarrassing losses.

Chiles didn’t have a secret recipe for victory among the same voters who overwhelmingly rejected federal Democrats in November, nor was he a flaming right-winger who repudiated the traditional values of his party. Rather, Chiles reached out to rural voters, talked openly about his faith, seemed to revel in a good fight, wasn’t afraid of a little hard work, and embraced a set of common-sense values that echoed the challenges of life in rural America. He, quite literally, walked their walk. In Chiles, they saw someone like them---and someone they could support.

Since Chiles’ untimely passing, most Democratic strategists have written off the vast rural regions of our state. With the exceptions of Bill Nelson and Betty Castor, two statewide Democrats who did reach out to North Florida voters in a meaningful way, the bulk of our statewide candidates have engaged in a failed strategy that ignored the majority of Florida communities to focus on a few small pockets of urban Democrats. Regrettably, this strategy continues today, despite the ongoing successes of countless locally elected Democrats who prove that the right candidate, with the right message, will win over rural voters.

Take Jackson County, for example --- a small county located some 70 miles from Tallahassee that seems to fit the mold of a Democratic County. Families in Jackson County earn barely $30,000 a year, some $10,000 below the state average, with a full two-thirds of its workforce employed either in service/retail jobs, or by the government. In 2000, Jackson County handed Bill Nelson a ten-point victory in his bid for the United States Senate, yet, despite the economic realities of their daily survival, they supported President Bush in 2004 by a margin of more than 24 points (62-38%). This story repeated itself all across Florida, as Kerry won less than a dozen counties, while Nelson carried 37 in 2000.

Why? Much of the blame falls on John Kerry himself, who seemed to talk more at rural voters than with them, and certainly, part falls on our party's failure to understand that these voters are driven by more than just economic issues. But I suggest there is something more visceral driving these election results --- a sentiment among rural voters that Democrats simply don't understand their reality, and worse yet, don't trust them as individuals. Senator Zell Miller, for all of his bizarre political rants, was right when he said that "if Southern voters ever start to think you don't understand them - or even worse, much worse, if they think you look down on them - they will never vote for you."

Our failure to engage these voters shows in the final results. Between 1996 and 2004, Democrats actually increased the margin of victories in our base counties, such as Broward and Palm Beach counties. But even as Democrats were watching our vote margins increase by more than 100,000 in those two counties combined, we were hemorrhaging voters in places like Bartow, Ocala, and Palatka. If we allow the backslide to continue, a Democratic statewide win in Florida will become the exception, not the norm. However, if we get to work now, we can once again build a long-term Democratic majority.

So, as we pass the torch of our Party leadership to a new leader, and the future of Florida Democrats begins anew, let us all agree that the first step building a statewide majority must be to fight for the hearts and minds of every Floridian, not just the ones in big cities.

Steve Schale is the Communications Director for the House Democratic Caucus, and is a near lifelong resident of North Florida. He has worked on more than two dozen federal and state elections since 1996.